Polyester market waiting for the dawn amid difficulties

Polyester market was in difficulty in May: macro market was volatile, demand remained meager and players held mildly recovering mindset, waiting for the dawn amid hardship.

In terms of macro, price of crude oil rose strongly again, supporting polyester industrial chain. On the other hand, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated greatly. Under such circumstance, players’ mindset was unsteady.

As for the market fundamentals, the spread of pandemic has been eased, while demand sustained mild. Downstream plants failed to follow the uptrend on feedstock market. Coupled with huge losses, the operating rate of downstream plants started falling from the second half of May.

Actually, polyester market witnessed improving performance compared with Apr. Polyester companies actively traced the uptrend on feedstock market after slashing production in Apr. Prices climbed up on the whole. Price of PSF dropped after supply recovered but overall trading price still moved up on the month.

However, the improvement was very limited. The polyester polymerization rate hit periodical low in mid-Apr at 78% while started ascending later but the increase was slow, which was above 83% in end-May.

The inventory of PFY was still as high as one month around and that of PSF was relatively low but may rise after supply recovered. In fact, downstream market of PFY and PSF was very weak now.

Polyester companies may continue waiting as downstream players did not give up completely. Although downstream buyers were resistant to high PFY price, sales of PFY have improved on the month according to sales in late-May. PFY companies even saw slightly falling inventory. Did downstream plants see better business? No! Why sales of polyester filament yarn continue improving?

Is it worthy of wait? There's a slight chance. After all, downstream demand has kept sluggish for long. Downstream market failed to see scant normal operation since Q4 2021 and was very bad in Apr. The performance may be worthy of expectation in the second half of year. For example, the traditional peak season may emerge after Jul by convention. Although the performance may be not good this year, it is still likely to improve on the month as long as there is seasonal demand. Therefore, players may try their best to sustain operation in Jun for later improvement.

In addition, market environment is likely to improve recently.

Domestic demand is expected to grow further after the lockdown of COVID-pandemic in Shanghai being canceled. Intensive policies and declare in May also render players holding some anticipation toward the appearance in the second half of year.

As for overseas market, the US dollar weakened in May, and the Fed's expectations of raising interest rates began to be revised. According to the current situation, although there is no disagreement on raising interest rates by 50 basis points in June and July, in turn, it means that it is very difficult for the market to have more additional shocks. Marginal improvement may even appear.

Mild domestic and external environment will favor the recovery of demand. Under such circumstance, the support from cost side is estimated to keep strong in Jun.

It is still unclear to see recovering demand in Jun as it takes time for the policy to take effect and seasonal demand will not come immediately. The situation is very particular this year. High price will weigh on demand. Polyester market is estimated to see improving performance in Jun as the cost side is likely to be high. However, Jun may be not the best season. Demand is also likely to turn better until Jul. If raw material becomes stronger while demand fails to chase up, prices may reduce again.