Jan’22 cotton yarn imports may move down 9.3% m-o-m to 117kt

1. Imported cotton yarn arrivals to China assessment

Cotton yarn imports of China in Dec reached 131kt, down 20.72% on the year and 8.04% on the month, and also the lowest for a single month in 2021. It amounted to about 1.9967 million tons cumulatively in the whole 2021, up 5.69% compared with that in the same period of 2019.

In the fourth quarter of 2021, cotton yarn imports of China fell sharply. Foreign cotton yarn price surged after China’s National Day holiday, making forward imported cotton yarn price higher than spot one for a long time. Meanwhile, cotton yarn sales in China local market were not healthy and few orders for forward imported cotton yarn were seen except a wave of intensive replenishment in mid- to late Dec.

With high absolute price and inadequate downstream orders, cotton yarn traders restocked much less in general, and affected by coming Spring Festival holiday (Jan 31-Feb 6), they tried to avoid late-Jan arrivals. Therefore, Jan cotton yarn imports of China is likely to be less than that in Dec 2021. According to CCFGroup’s survey, the imports in Jan 2022 is initially assessed at 117kt, down about 39.9% on the year and 10.68% on the month; and Feb imports may be much more than Jan one.

According to export data of foreign markets in Dec, cotton yarn exports of Vietnam increased on the month. During the second half of Dec to the first half of Jan, Vietnam’s cotton yarn exports rose about 25.58% on the month, so the part to China is expected to increase from last month. Cotton yarn exports of Pakistan in Dec fell by 8.3% on the month, and that to China shares less from previous years, so the export volume will decline further in Jan. India’s cotton yarn exports in Dec has not been released, but according to orders and Indian cotton yarn spinners, Dec exports is estimated to drop compared with Nov one, so the arrivals to China in Jan will also decrease on the month. The ordering for Uzbekistani cotton yarn weakened obviously in the third and fourth quarters, so the part to China in Jan is likely to slightly improve. Based on the above assessment, Jan cotton yarn imports of China is possibly to dip from the four major exporters. It is initially estimated that cotton yarn imports of China in Jan from Vietnam is at 62kt; from Pakistan 13kt, from India 11kt, from Uzbekistan 13kt and from other regions 10.3kt.  

2. Imported yarn stocks moved down first and then rose.

In Jan, the stocks of imported cotton yarn in China showed a trend from increase to fall. In the first half month, pre-holiday restocking sustained and overall trading sentiment was good, which reduced the stocks. In the second half month, with Spring Festival coming, downstream fabric mills took holiday successively and the transactions were stagnated gradually. Additionally, some shipments arrived. Therefore, the stocks increased.

The operating rate of downstream fabric mills edged down gradually. In the first half of Jan, some fabric mills in Guangdong adjusted up run rate to deliver pre-holiday orders, improving overall trading sentiment in early Jan. Around Jan 20, the mills shut down for holiday gradually and the operating rate plunged. After the holiday, large fabric mills resumed production earlier around Feb 8 and small and medium-sized ones mostly postponed the restart until Feb 15.

At present, the spot imported cotton yarn stocks of low costs were not left many after pre-holiday replenishment of downstream fabric mills, as traders hardly placed orders amid more expensive forward imported cotton yarn since 2021 National Day holiday and cotton yarn imports in the fourth quarter of 2021 plummeted. Some Chinese cotton yarn also faced tight supply. During Spring Festival holiday, forward cotton yarn price soared and reached over 2,000yuan/mt higher than spot one. Adding less arrivals in Jan, the traders generally intend to adjust up the prices of imported cotton yarn, but it is hardly accepted by downstream fabric mills, so there are few transactions. Feb arrivals were mostly ordered in mid- to late Dec and it is predicted more than Jan one.