Why cotton linter prices dive?

Cottonseed and cotton linter prices have been falling after touching the ceiling since the end of Oct and beginning of Nov. The price has dived as cottonseed has lost ground by more than 500-600yuan/mt and cotton linter has plunged by 3,000-4,000yuan/mt.

Cotton linter price hit historic high in 2010 and has witnessed in-depth adjustment afterwards. Bulk commodities have been increasing amid loose monetary policy and inflation this year. Driven by sharp increase of cotton linter pulp demand in particular, cotton linter has witnessed new round of price hike and hit a decade high. After the National Day holiday in early Oct, commodity market has gradually cooled down with fast price decline under greater pressure of macro economy as well as the influence of world liquidity and spreading pandemic. After the end of Oct, cottonseed and cotton linter prices have dropped after hiking.

The harvesting and sales of seed cotton in Xinjiang is postponed by 5-10 days compared with prior years due to the influence of weather, higher seed cotton procurement price and unwillingness of sales by cotton growers. Cottonseed price kept rising at the end of Sep and cotton linter producers who became reluctant sellers also continued to adjust up prices. However, the procurement price of seed cotton took the lead in falling after the National Day holiday in early Oct due to the policy regulation. Coupled with more cottonseed and cotton linter on the market, cottonseed price had shed after the end of Oct and cotton linter price also dived after hiking.

It is noteworthy that cotton linter demand of China is mainly contributed by cotton linter pulp and refined cotton. Cotton linter pulp mills have been under big cost pressure with rising cotton linter price since the second half of 2021. Moreover, cotton linter pulp is less competitive than low-priced paper pulp and dissolving wood pulp, so the consumption of staple-grade cotton linter has reduced significantly and cotton linter price is under downward pressure without demand growth.

Bulk commodities increased on easing monetary policy and inflation this year and cotton linter price jumped amid great increment of demand in the first half of year. However, commodities gradually cooled down in mid-to-late Oct with prices going down. Coupled with increasing supply of new cottonseed and cotton linter, the price of cotton linter has dived since the end of Oct and it is expected to be flat to weaker before the end of year instead of shedding again.