Hot sales of polyester yarn will not last long

PSF futures surged on Nov 24 and the sales of direct-spun PSF improved much with sales ratio averaging over 500%. On the next day, direct-spun PSF price moved up, but the sales ratio still reached 110%. Why is it sold better when the price moves up, different from PFY’s better sales when price is lowered?

With the doubt, let’s starting recent market performance. After National Day holiday (Oct 1-7), direct-spun PSF and polyester yarn both moved into the valley. Their prices and trading volumes kept shrinking in over a month. Amid the bearish sentiment, buying interest was thin. Downstream spinners and traders only procured for their rigid demand. After a month’s digestion of raw materials, no matter traders or spinners all have demand for replenishment, but they are just seeking an opportunity for proper price.

The turning point came when crude oil rocketed on Nov 23. Previously, with concerns that US would release strategic oil reserves with India, Japan and South Korea, WTI crude oil declined to $75/b. However the specific volume released was not as much as expected, which also stimulated OPEC+ to consider suspension of production increase, and thereby crude oil was pulled up to $78-79/b. Then overnight PSF futures soared. Meeting replenishment demand, the sales ratio of direct-spun PSF rushed up. The average inventory of direct-spun PSF plants also dropped to about one day, easing the pressure.

But, does polyester yarn sales turn so hot? Does the restocking point also come?

First, the sales are not as expected with raw materials moving up. Take Fujian, major consumption area of direct-spun PSF 1.4D, as an example. The sales ratio of polyester yarn in Fujian averaged at 200-300% on Nov 24, and about 150% on Nov 25. That seemed to be improved much from a month ago, but still fell far behind direct-spun PSF, and this improvement was based on the rise of raw materials, so once the favorable factor diminishes, the demand will disappear immediately. On the other hand, except Fujian and the variety, other products like polyester sewing thread, polyester/cotton yarn and vortex-spun polyester yarn in other markets keep dull. The export orders are also plain as usual.

Second, downstream demand is weak. Downstream weavers basically finished orders for“double 11”(Nov 11) in late Oct, and then the orders placed to them started to be slack. In the meantime, direct-spun PSF slid sharply. Therefore, end-users generally stood on the sidelines and waited. In addition, the finish of restriction on electricity resulted in quick rise of weavers’inventory and forced them to lower operating rate. At present, weavers hold bearish expectation to local sales and they also do not take many export orders, so they are not keen on restocking polyester yarn.

In conclusion, the hot sales will not last long. Direct-spun PSF is not likely to move up continuously, which eliminates the speculative demand. Current weak downstream demand and plain export orders limit overall trading volume too. As a consequence, polyester yarn trade will return to be cool and the inventory accumulation is strongly expected. When the inventory moves up to about 20 days, it will show pressure. In addition, polyester/cotton yarn, also a major consumption of direct-spun PSF, is worse, of which the inventory has reached over 23 days and is still rising. Therefore, not only polyester yarn but also direct-spun PSF will not see lasting hot sales.